Richard Charkin

Another word that’s suffering the same fate and/or metamorphosis is existential. I use it along with threat. But what did it mean in the past, and what does it mean today? Existentialism, the philosophical theory came into being in the 19th and 20th centuries thanks to cool and brainy scholars and authors including Søren Kierkegaard (1813-1855); Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980); Albert Camus (1913-1960); Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900). I’ve tried to ascertain what they mean by the term existentialism but their definitions leave me more confused than ever—my fault, not theirs.

What I mean by the phrase existential threat in publishing at least is something that challenges the very existence of our industry. Perhaps we might do well to look at the threats which were probably viewed as existential at the time. We might take a less catastrophic view now.

I’m pretty sure that in the early days, free public libraries were viewed as likely to take the bread from the mouths of starving or nearly publishers by broadening the market without increasing sales of the book. Somehow we survived and now embrace libraries as our allies in the fight for literacy, freedom of expression, and more readers. The existential threat is to libraries themselves as they suffer governmental cuts and imposed censorship.

Technology’s Several ‘Existential Threats’

Each development in communications technology—radio, film, television—has been seen by many as the end of the publishing world as we knew it. Cogent arguments propounded by clever people have always warned that no one would read when they could gain a better experience through audio and video. That existential threat faded fairly rapidly as authors and publishers benefitted from a broadening of their audiences through the adaptation of their ideas for various newer media, while using increasing numbers of digital outlets to promote the original books themselves.

The Harry Potter novel series has benefitted enormously from its films and stage presentation, and will benefit even more with the forthcoming television series [announced by Warner Bros. Discovery for a likely early-2026 streaming premiere on Max].

In the United Kingdom, retail margins were protected for many years by an established law, the Net Book Agreement (NBA)—retail price maintenance, in other words.

There was a move to abolish this law and the pillars of the book trade rose up almost as one to predict the collapse of bookselling and the collapse of publishing margins. One publisher produced evidence in court that the murder rate in New York was significantly higher than in London—New York did not enjoy the civilizing benefits of retail price maintenance while London did. Thus abolition of price maintenance in the UK would lead inevitably to an increase in the murder rate, leading turn to an existential threat to British society.

The judge in the case was unimpressed by this argument and the British book trade seems to be existing perfectly well without the NBA.

‘The Very Core of Publishing Depends on Copyright’

Today, it’s hard not to view the rapid, brain-frying development of artificial intelligence, generative AI, its large language models, and its potential as an existential threat to our industry.

The very core of publishing depends on copyright.

Without strong copyright regimes there would still be writing and creating but there would be little commerce, little innovation, little motivation to develop markets and new products. Tremble before the megalithic techno-giants? Tremble before governments who in turn are trembling at the unknown and unknowable impact on society and may be willing to sacrifice copyright on the altar of free enterprise?

The threat is indeed existential but we have the weapons to see it off. We have established networks for the legal enforcement and collection of money for the use of copyright. We have powerful voices to work with us—musicians, Hollywood and Bollywood, the community of visual artists, the patent attorneys, the pharmaceutical industry, the social media companies the existence of which is guaranteed by the protection of intellectual property.

We are blessed with global voices such the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO); the International Federation of Reproduction Rights Organizations (IFRRO); the Copyright Clearance Center and its collective licensing equivalents in many countries; publishers associations, both national and international; and we have poets, playwrights, novelists, and scientists who will stand with us.

So what is the existential threat to publishing today if not AI, if not consolidation, if not monopolization of distribution channels, if not piracy, if not challenges to the freedom to publish, if not erosion of copyright, if not the move away from long-form reading?

I think the real threat is not external to our industry, but our industry itself.

We can deal with all threats, provided we continue to be willing to invest, to adapt, to take risks, to support our authors, our institutions, and our principles. The world is changing faster now than ever. Publishing needs to change at least as quickly. I am confident we will.

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