Hazel Kenyon of Nielsen Book Market Data, opened her presentation by emphasizing the importance of metadata, the foundation of Nielsen’s research.

“We are aggregators and custodians of metadata from more than 60,000 content creators and publishers worldwide,” Kenyon said. “They provide that data to us, and then we enrich it and make sure that it’s complete and accurate.

“Our experts tell us that on a weekly basis, our data can collect more than 30 million lines of transactional data.”

Online Retail, Emerging Markets, Price Dynamics

Image: Nielsen BookData

Part of that data shows how online retail has grown enormously across many territories over the past two decades. Yet, as Kenyon reported, the market now has reached “a sort of fair balance in each of the territories that we cover—it’s just become part of the ‘new normal.’”

Of the 17 territories analyzed, 11 showed growth, Kenyon said, with India leading at +28.6 percent, followed by Brazil  at +10.8 percent, and Colombia at +9.6 percent.

Nielsen has tracked markets including the United Kingdom and France for more than 20 years, achieving up to 90-percent coverage of print book sales.

By contrast, countries including India have a comparatively e fragmented retail landscape, with multiple distribution channels and informal book markets, which leads to lower coverage.

Across various national markets, there’s a clear pattern in bestselling genres, Kenyon said.

In the UK—a market currently down 2.6 percent in volume and 0.4 percent in value—young-adult fiction is showing strong growth, driven in part by the new Hunger Games prequel from Suzanne Collins. Science-fiction and fantasy, with authors like Rebecca Yarros and Sarah J. Maas, are also gaining ground.

“Cozy coloring books” have become a cross-market phenomenon,” Kenyon told her audience on Wednesday, “driving growth in children’s nonfiction, comic-strip fiction, and graphic novels.

“Similarly, in India, Australia, France, and Brazil, YA and dystopian fiction, picture books, and cozy coloring titles are on the rise. In France, Freida McFadden’s thrillers dominate the Top Five charts.

‘We’re Going in the Right Direction’

Kenyon also presented a snapshot of average selling prices across markets, summarizing: “Prices are rising, values are increasing.”

All territories saw growth in average selling prices except New Zealand, Kenyon said, where aggressive discounting has tempered increases. The average selling price rose by 1.6 percent, compared to 2.4 percent last year.

“So the average selling price is increasing, but not as much as it did last time,” Kenyon said. “And the volume is decreasing, but not as much as it did last time. So things are inching in the right direction, hopefully.”

She also compared book prices to average hourly wages, raising an important question: “When we think about what’s happening in different countries, we also have to ask, ‘What are the consumers here facing when they go to buy a book? How much are they having to dig into their pockets for this?’”

The data shows that in several markets—including Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, and India—books cost more than the average hourly wage.

“So really, these are nations of keen book buyers who see books as a luxury item, yet will still pay out for them,” Kenyon concluded. “In sum, we can see positive volume growth in more territories. It feels like we’re going in the right direction.”