Publishing analyst Carlo Carrenho kicks off the week with a review of the headlines from across the international publishing world.

By Carlo Carrenho, Contributing Editor

Among the news of the week: The sale of Norway’s oldest publisher appears to be progressing; inflation impacts the book markets in the U.K. and Ireland, as well as in France and Italy; a Brazilian bookseller’s impressive growth; and a glimpse into the Japanese publishing market.

Aschehoug Sale Could Reshape Norway’s Tightly Regulated Audiobook Market 

Anders Neraal reports for Bok365 that the sale of Aschehoug Forlag, Norway’s oldest and third-largest publisher, is progressing after bids were submitted before Christmas. Neraal estimates the company’s value at around NOK 1.5 billion ($140 million), with roughly one-third linked to publishing operations and the remainder to real estate assets. It is also worth noting that, to date, there are no indications that any major international publishing groups have taken part in the bidding process.

Beyond the transaction itself, the significance of this sale lies in its potential impact on Norway’s audiobook ecosystem. Aschehoug is not only a major and highly traditional force in Norwegian publishing, but also the owner of 50% of the audiobook platform Fabel. According to BOK365, there are rumors that this stake could be divested following the sale. Fabel competes with Storytel in Norway, with the two services holding significant market shares and together largely controlling the country’s audiobook market. As a result, the potential sale of Aschehoug’s Fabel stake—jointly owned with Gyldendal—could meaningfully alter the dynamics of Norway’s tightly regulated audiobook market.

Média-Participations Invests in Miyu as IP Strategies Move Beyond Books

Eric Dupuy at Livres Hebdo reports that Média-Participations has acquired a 25% minority stake in Miyu Productions, the independent animation studio founded in 2009 by Emmanuel-Alain Raynal. With 65 subsidiaries and more than 2,000 employees, Média-Participations is Europe’s leading publisher of comics, manga, and graphic novels, which includes its ownership of ADN (Anime Digital Network), a French streaming platform specializing in Japanese anime with subtitled or dubbed content. While the deal reflects an active M&A environment in France, its deeper significance lies in how publishing groups are repositioning to operate across video and audio, particularly in comics and manga, signaling that more convergence between book publishers and streaming companies lies ahead.

Modest Growth for French Indie Bookshops

Independent French bookshops posted a modest 0.9% increase in total turnover in 2025, with book sales up 0.6% year-on-year, according to data from the Syndicat de la Librairie Française. A strong December (+3.4% for books; +5.4% for non-book items) helped offset a weak start, even as sales volume fell 0.5% and publishers raised prices. Literature reportedly rose 4.3%, while manga declined sharply, off by 7.7%. Performances varied widely across the country, with roughly a third of shops reporting revenue for the year to be down by 5% or more. Data from INSEE (France’s official statistics institute) shows the consumer price index running at around 0.8% year-on-year in late 2025, suggesting limited or no real growth once inflation is factored in. The 7.7% drop in manga—a category that has been exceptionally strong and dynamic in France—is striking and unexpected, and merits closer analysis and further investigation.

U.K. and Ireland Print Markets Diverge—Until Inflation Is Factored In

According to a BookScan analysis published by NielsenIQ BookData, the U.K. and Irish print book markets moved in different directions in 2025: Ireland recorded a 1.5% increase in print book consumption despite a 0.4% fall in unit sales, while the U.K. saw consumption decline 0.5% alongside a sharper 2.5% drop in sales. Genre performance also diverged, suggesting shifting reader demand in the two neighboring markets: Adult nonfiction drove Irish growth, rising 4% in value, while adult fiction slipped 0.2%; In contrast, adult fiction underpinned the U.K. market with a 5% increase, and adult nonfiction fell 5%.

Once inflation is considered, however, the apparent divergence between the U.K. and Irish markets largely disappears. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility—the U.K.’s official independent fiscal forecaster—average U.K. consumer price inflation (CPI) is expected to reach 3.2% in 2025, implying a real-term decline in print book consumption of about 3.6%. In Ireland, the European Commission forecasts inflation will average roughly 1.9% in 2025, which would reduce Ireland’s nominal growth to a real-term contraction of around 0.4%. The key takeaway: inflation matters, and in this case the declines in volume in both countries may be the most telling statistic.

Italian Trade Book Sales Declined in 2025, but There Is Optimism for 2026

According to Giornale della Libreria, book sales in Italy’s trade channels declined 2.1% in value in 2025 to €1.484 billion ($1.718 billion) with volume down 3%, based on NielsenIQ BookData. Associazione Italiana Editori president Innocenzo Cipolletta will present the full analysis on January 30 at the Umberto and Elisabetta Mauri School for Booksellers in Venice. However, in a release, Cipolletta said the industry is looking for positive momentum in 2026, buoyed by government support measures including a €60 million allocation for library purchases. Again, inflation must be factored in: provisional figures from Istat, Italy’s official statistics agency, put average annual inflation in 2025 at 1.5% over 2024, suggesting that the decline in Italy’s book market in 2025 was likely closer to 3.5% in real terms.

Livraria Leitura Emerges as Brazil’s Book Retail Leader

According to Bloomberg Línea, Brazil’s largest physical bookstore chain, Livraria Leitura, is targeting overall growth of roughly 25% in 2026, fueled by store expansion, experiential retail strategies, and football-related sales linked to the FIFA World Cup. Livraria Leitura currently operates 133 stores across 61 Brazilian cities.

The collapse of Brazil’s two largest bookstore chains in 2023 (Livraria Cultura and Saraiva) initially destabilized the market, but it also created the conditions for rapid consolidation and selective growth. As bookstore numbers fell—particularly in large urban centers—Amazon expanded its market share, while independent bookstores proliferated in cities such as São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. One of the most notable beneficiaries has been Livraria Leitura, which has capitalized on the vacuum left by its rivals to become Brazil’s leading chain. With its manager ownership model (some 70% of store managers hold equity stakes) and a willingness to close underperforming locations quickly—the retailer’s rapid ascent has made it one of the key players to watch in Brazil’s evolving book retail landscape.

A Rare Snapshot of Japan’s Publishing Hierarchy

According to Shinbunka Online, Kadokawa has retained first place in Maruzen Junkudo’s 2025 publisher sales ranking, marking its second consecutive year at the top. One of Japan’s largest bookstore chains, Maruzen Junkudo reported Kadokawa sales of approximately ¥3.05 billion ($21.0 million), representing a 1.1% year-on-year decline within the chain. The rest of the top six publishers remained unchanged, with Kodansha in second place, followed by Shueisha, Shogakukan, Gakken, and Shinchosha. The most notable movement came from Asahi Shimbun Publications, which climbed from tenth to seventh place. The full Top 300 ranking is available here.

Japanese publishing data rarely travels beyond the domestic market, which makes rankings of this kind especially valuable. It offers a rare and practical indicator of market performance, shedding light on the relative strength and positioning of Japan’s largest publishers through the lens of one of the country’s most influential bookstore chains.

Upcoming Events of Note

Shifting Sounds: Platformization and the Future of Audiobooks in Germany and Sweden is set for January 30 in Mainz, Germany, part of the annual Mainzer Kolloquium. Organized by Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz in cooperation with Uppsala University, the event is open to the public and will be held in English. The program will bring together Swedish and German scholars and industry voices to discuss streaming, platformization, data, and new audiobook business models to offer a rare, comparative look at two of Europe’s most influential audiobook markets. Click here for more information.

The Third Edition of PARIX Audio Day will take place in Madrid on February 19, bringing together more than 50 experts from over 15 countries across the publishing, streaming, and audio production industries. Organized by the Fundación Germán Sánchez Ruipérez in collaboration with Dosdoce.com, the one-day program will be conducted mostly in English and will once again feature keynotes, panels, and networking sessions focused on international audio trends, AI in audio production and distribution, catalogue building, and the evolution of audio entertainment in Europe and Latin America. Click here for more information.

NOTE: The writer of this column survived a 2,477% annual inflation rate in Brazil in 1993 and has been addicted to deflation ever since.