Richard Charkin

Adaptability in a changing world is the key to success, and it’s as true in the world of publishing as in the animal kingdom.

We can safely say that our global publishing ecosystem is changing more rapidly and more fundamentally than ever before, despite some voices arguing for or hoping for the status quo.

We see the growing consolidation of Anglophone publishing. The big global trade publishers are taking an ever greater share of the market for authors and readers.

This conglomeration is driven by two apparently contradictory factors. The big guys find it almost impossible to grow organically. They turn to acquisition. The little guys have discovered that it’s easier to make money selling their companies than selling books. These little guys are capable of innovating better. The big guys are better at turning that innovation into profit. All sectors are affected and it will continue while copyright remains an attractive and long-living asset.

Even literary agencies have been becoming more corporate. Where this leaves authors is an open question. The days of the sole agent nurturing and cosseting a handful of clients may be over. I hope not.

Access Opened

We’ve seen great growth in print, ebook, and digital audio e-commerce companies. We’ll never know the full extent of their control of publishing’s value chain but it includes not just book sales but also printing, recording, and self-publishing.

That remains a concern, but brilliant logistics and worldwide reach offer publishers huge opportunities to discover readers everywhere. Indeed, it allows all publishers to publish worldwide without the need for warehouses and traditional infrastructure.

Digital publishing has been with us for several decades, forcing publishers to adapt their business models fundamentally. For instance, the concept that “information should be free” or at very low cost is taking hold in some of our markets. In academic publishing, the new truth is that readers should have open access to all scholarly research.

Does open access enhance quality? Do open-access business models, paid for by funding agencies, stimulate publishers to innovate? Does giving stuff away develop the real market?

Inevitably, and somewhat tediously, all roads might seem at this point in publishing’s conversations lead to artificial intelligence. Many authors’ and publishers’ organizations are envisaging existential threats—the mechanized creation of new books flooding the market with dross, mass unemployment, the destruction of copyright by generative AI operations “trained” on copyrighted content without permission or licenses, the end of quality literature, and the end of discerning authors and publishers. These are genuine threats but let’s look at all this with a view to the opportunities.

‘To Move Forward Is To Discover’

Typically publishers’ overheads are around 40 percent of their revenue. Of that probably only a quarter relates to those people finding and nurturing the best authors and ensuring books sell to their potential. The rest is for support staff. A technology that reduces non-core costs and improves core efficiency is to be welcomed.

AI translation tools allow multiple language editions of books quickly and cheaply. Of course, some books need human translation but many do not. We now have the technology to better support minority languages and publishers in markets with several languages—while Spain has one official language (Castilian) and five co-official languages, while  Namibia has one official language (English) but 13 “national” languages.

Then, of course, there are opportunities for audiobooks. The cost of producing an audiobook is decreasing through AI. The numbers of audiobooks may thus increase, and as unlimited subscription models for audiobooks become universal—despite industry reluctance—every book could generate income.

Finally back to the threat of AI, we as an industry are blessed with a highly efficient, greatly trusted infrastructure for the collection of income from photocopying, educational use, etc. The reprographic rights organizations (RRO) of the world are ideally placed to collect money from GenAI companies and to distribute earnings to authors and publishers. Many international publishers make a very large proportion of their profits out of rights deals—this new income stream will help enormously. We must not treat AI as the enemy but as a commercial partner.

Some words from Jordi Nadal, the publisher at Plataforma Editorial in Barcelona: “To move forward is to discover; to progress you must learn to let go of baggage. Let’s all let go of our baggage.”